I've been writing about child welfare failures in WA. I think you and your readers would like the series of 3 I've put up. https://bobcoleman.substack.com/
Very impressed you worked in a Gang Starr reference Zach! Putting aside the coolness of the FUVI, I'm curious about your suggestion of a nonzero chance of reductions in federal financing and your thinking there. Is that based on overall sources, or would you ascribe that to particular sources - like the non IVE federal funds given the threats to Medicaid and SSBG for example. I'm personally wondering about the volatility in the economy and employment and its short and long-term impacts on child welfare.
I would rank the biggest risk with Medicaid, given that it’s both so key to overall state budgets (even beyond child welfare) and would be inevitable if reconciliation has Energy and Commerce cuts at the levels the House budget resolution instructs.
The next tier reconciliation risk is TANF and SSBG, which are lower both because they are less necessary to the reconciliation math and because they aren’t as central to overall state budgets the way Medicaid is.
That said, if you’re a state child welfare agency, losing all or a portion of those through reconciliation could be destabilizing if you disproportionately rely on them.
For states with any potential exposure to funding rescissions from immigration compliance either through policy choices or difficultly managing verification adequately, the combined risk becomes big with IV-E given its outsize role in child welfare funding.
Your point on the economy and employment is an important one too. If you have any data or research that would be good to dig into on that front, or any other ideas, do send them my way!
I've been writing about child welfare failures in WA. I think you and your readers would like the series of 3 I've put up. https://bobcoleman.substack.com/
Very impressed you worked in a Gang Starr reference Zach! Putting aside the coolness of the FUVI, I'm curious about your suggestion of a nonzero chance of reductions in federal financing and your thinking there. Is that based on overall sources, or would you ascribe that to particular sources - like the non IVE federal funds given the threats to Medicaid and SSBG for example. I'm personally wondering about the volatility in the economy and employment and its short and long-term impacts on child welfare.
Thanks Miranda!
I would rank the biggest risk with Medicaid, given that it’s both so key to overall state budgets (even beyond child welfare) and would be inevitable if reconciliation has Energy and Commerce cuts at the levels the House budget resolution instructs.
The next tier reconciliation risk is TANF and SSBG, which are lower both because they are less necessary to the reconciliation math and because they aren’t as central to overall state budgets the way Medicaid is.
That said, if you’re a state child welfare agency, losing all or a portion of those through reconciliation could be destabilizing if you disproportionately rely on them.
For states with any potential exposure to funding rescissions from immigration compliance either through policy choices or difficultly managing verification adequately, the combined risk becomes big with IV-E given its outsize role in child welfare funding.
Your point on the economy and employment is an important one too. If you have any data or research that would be good to dig into on that front, or any other ideas, do send them my way!